People with heart failure are twice as likely to die if they are admitted to a general hospital ward rather than one specialising in cardiology, research has suggested. Bed modelling is a common simulation application.

The ambulance service in Wales has wasted a total of 80,404 hours in the past two years while waiting to discharge patients, figures. Emergency care models in SIMUL8 are being used to understand where the bottle necks are occurring and where to act to  overcome these problems.

“The apparent rise of bed-blocking, amid growing difficulty devising support packages for those ready to leave hospital, has inevitably started a blame game between health and social care”. Using SIMUL8 software can help health and social care simulate together where delays are being created and ensure that any investments are directed appropriately. New demonstration models on patient discharge and planning across health and social care are currently being tested.

Also in the press this week, discussion in both health and social care circles about how technology might help deal with austerity. The new version of Scenario Generator now includes social care as well as health pathways, and there is an exercise on examining the impact of telecare on existing resources

There has been a lot of discussion in the press about variation in quality of GP services. Now that the Health and Social Care Bill is published, local consortia can model their local population’s expected needs based on age and prevalence through care pathways representing different conditions to test referral thresholds and compare with peers using Scenario Generator. This simulation and modelling tool can also test the impact of decommissioning as well as commissioning services

The Royal College of Surgeons in England has warned of the dangers of stopping certain elective surgical procedures to save money. Use simulation to model the impact of delaying surgery for capacity planning in the future and to consider patient outcomes

As of today, California is the first state in the nation requiring HMOs to make sure their members can see their doctor within reasonable time frames. The regulations, approved in 2010, specify the usual wait times for appointments. For instance, patients must be seen within 48 hours for an urgent-care appointment that doesn’t require prior authorization. Non-urgent primary-care appointments must be scheduled within 10 days of the patient request. Specialist appointments should occur no later than 15 days from the request, and patients needing mental health appointments with someone other than a physician should be seen within 10 business days. Non-urgent appointments for ancillary services for diagnosis or treatment of an injury or illness should occur within 15 business days of the request, according to the rules. Simulation can help to understanding the resources required to ensure these targets are met. SIMUL8 software was used to model waiting time targets in the UK.

The NHS Operating Framework has set out the timetable for reform and whilst the detail for some areas still needs clarification, there are some policy initiatives that would benefit from the use of simulation. We set out below our take on where to use simulation to help. Read more…

New funding has been made available to support patient discharge into social care. Understanding the interface between health and social care and the impact of resource on flows to services can been facilitated by simulation. SIMUL8 has been used in England and Scotland to help to test which solutions are most effective. Scenario Generator has now got social care pathways which will help users to model impacts.

This has been a challenging time for emergency services. Some health systems are modelling winter pressures using SIMUL8. Modelling the flow of activity at peak periods and testing capacity solutions can help manage the crisis.